COVID19  Daily Stats (Ottawa, ON, Canada) 
This page contains data from the Ottawa COVID19 Dashboard and graphs tracking the latest daily deaths, number hospitalized, 7day rolling average of new cases, Rt, testing, school stats, and probability one or more people are infected in a group of size n from COVID19 in the city of Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. For now the graphs are updated on a daily basis early morning each day, except Rt which is once a week on Sundays.
You can also find stats for Global, Canada, Ontario, and Quebec, Vaccine Effectiveness in Ontario, Vaccine stats for Canada, Ontario, & Quebec, and Ontario SelfIsolation Rule Flowcharts.
Table of Contents
1. Dashboard
2. 7day Rolling Average New Cases
3. Hospitalized and New Deaths
4. Testing
5. Probability 1 Person (or more) is Infected in
Group of Size n
6. Rt (Effective Reproduction Number)
7. Response Framework
8. New Cases by Age Group
9. Ottawa School Stats
Note: Hospital bed occupied stats for COVID19 patients includes all residents and nonresidents in Ottawa hospitals.
The graph below shows the 7day rolling average of COVID19 viral signal in wastewater which provides a citywide view of COVID activity to help determine if the number of infected people in Ottawa is increasing, decreasing, or staying the same.
**NOTE**: Since Ontario and Ottawa are no longer testing the general public for COVID19, case counts are no longer accurate in 2022 but are now reflective of the health care worker environment, LTC, and high risk settings that are still being tested. Wastewater viral signal provide a more accurate view at the population level and as such case counts will no longer be updated.
Ottawa Hospitalized and New Deaths
Note: Number of patients hospitalized for COVID19 has already been filtered by OPH to only show those hospitalized *for* COVID19 and represents only Ottawa residents in Ottawa hospitals, it does not include nonresidents using Ottawa hospital beds (see dashboard above for full picture).
The graph below shows the 7day rolling average of new tests and the % of positive tests that day.
Ottawa Probability 1 Person
(or more) is Infected in Group of Size n
The probability that one or more individuals is infectious in a group of size n, given a perperson probability p of being infectious is: 1–(1–p)^{n}. Using the active number of cases in Ottawa, the graph shows the probability that 1 or more people is infected with COVID19 in groups of varying sizes such as 10 (personal bubble), 15 (high school classroom), 25 (classroom), 50 (indoor limit), 200 (event), 1000 (large retailer), 2000 (big office building), and 5000 (large event). If you want to calculate your own probabilities, you can use the online spreadsheet to do so.
Seroprevalence is testing with a sample of the population using blood to detect COVID19 antibodies and estimate what percentage of the population has actually been infected, including those that never got a PCR RNA COVID19 test. Ontario does such surveillance, and in the latest report for the period ending October 31, 2020 they found that 1.2% of the Ontario population was positive for antibodies. The graph below shows two results, a lower bound which is just the known active cases and a seroprevalence estimate using 1.2% (the provincial average) to estimate the additional active cases that got missed in testing.
Source of data: https://www.ottawapublichealth.ca/en/reportsresearchandstatistics/dailycovid19dashboard.aspx
Ottawa Rt (Effective Reproduction Number)
Rt is the effective reproduction number, which determines the potential for epidemic spread at a specific time t with whatever control measures are currently in place for a population (masks, physical distancing, etc...). Rt shows the average number of additional infections caused by an initial infection at a specific time. If Rt stays below 1, that means each infection on average leads to less than 1 more infected person so sustained transmission is unlikely. If it gets above 1, that means the number of infected cases will start to grow rapidly. So you want to see Rt below 1.0 which indicates that the outbreak is under control.
The graph below shows some of the indicators used in the Ontario Response Framework for people to better see whether Ottawa is getting closer to moving into a different response category. It seems that Ontario ignored its own Public Health Ontario (PHO) advice and multiplied their recommendations by 2 or 4 times which is why the values are so high for each category. Ontario has since reduced those values somewhat after the massive outcry. I have included in the table below both the original PHO advice and what Ontario is currently using for comparison.
Indicator 
PREVENT 
PROTECT  RESTRICT  CONTROL 

Ontario 
PHO 
Ontario 
PHO 
Ontario 
PHO 
Ontario 
PHO 

Weekly incidence rate per 100k people  < 10  < 5  10 to 24.9  5 to 9.9  25 to 39.9  10 to 25  >= 40  >= 25 
% Positivity  < 0.5  < 0.5  0.5 to 1.2  0.5 to 1.2  1.3 to 2.4  1.2 to 2.5  >= 2.5  >= 2.5 
Rt (effective reproduction number)  < 1  1  1 to 1.1  >= 1.2  
Level of community transmission  Stable  Stable or Increasing  Stable or Increasing  Increasing 
The graph below shows the 7day rolling average of daily new cases per 100K population split by age group and is updated weekly on Sunday mornings.
Source of data: https://open.ottawa.ca/datasets/covid19casesanddeathsinottawa
The follow graph tracks school absenteeism in Ottawa including the neighbourhoods of Barrhaven, Gloucester, Kanata, Nepean, and Orleans. It shows the min, average, and max percentage of students and staff absent for each school day. Schools reporting 0% and 100% absence are removed before plotting the graph.
Source of data: https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/summaryofcasesinschools
Ontario stopped reporting the following data as of Dec. 23, 2021. The following table shows the # of schools with active COVID19 confirmed cases and the breakdown of elementary and secondary schools with open outbreaks (2 or more cases transmitted within the school). It also shows the school targeted testing positivity which are infected cases that likely would have otherwise gone undetected. The graph below shows the active # of student and staff COVID19 confirmed cases in Ottawa schools over time. If you want to see the names of the schools that have active cases, see this report.
Source of data: https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/summaryofcasesinschools
Source of data: https://open.ottawa.ca/datasets/covid19casesanddeathsinottawa
